There were plenty of stupid actions within Ukrainian parliament. However, they are minor and could not have caused the events you describe. Russia is fully capable of creating its own provocations, but for reasons unknown is refraining from them. As mentioned, there's likely a red line drawn involving mass-casualty events originated by Russia (and they are not good at improvising other excuses).
Same thing with Right Sector. It's an organization that grew exponentially during the past month. It simply cannot control all its members. Much less prevent people from claiming they are RS. While providing fodder for informational war is stupid, specific mistakes really don't matter.
If Russia needs a pretext, it will create one. By getting involved in Crimea militarily Russia is bringing its own collapse to within 2-3 years. If it crosses into mainland Ukraine, the countdown will change to months.
---
It's an interesting theory that Putin gave priority to the moderates, however the events on the ground do no bear it out. In fact, everything is pointing to a military operation in Crimea. However, rather than dramatic images of Russian tanks being off-loaded, the operation will be ramping up very slowly. Putin will hope to avoid harsh sanctions by not making very sudden moves. He will hope that more open presence of Russian soldiers will create tension and casualties necessary for him to excuse constantly increasing involvement.
---
As to the theory that US wants archive from Yanuk and is offering/offered him safe passage - it's a silly rumor. In such situation US usually does 2 things: 1) Bribe the lowest possible cadre who is capable of securing required documents 2) Deploy a spec ops team to secure them (who will work with local allies). US would not get its hand dirty in the way you describe. In this case however, there is very little information that US does not already have. Some information on weapon deals in ME would be nice, but we have most of it from the other side anyway.
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Tymoshenko has had her chance at running the country is significantly responsible for today's mess. Her personal ambition and incompatibility with other players makes her influence destructive in the current situation. Her international weight has been significantly undermined by this WH announcement:
"We welcome former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenkoâs release from a prison hospital today, and we wish her a speedy recovery as she seeks the appropriate medical treatment that she has long needed and sought"
---
It's understandable that events dictate a degree of tunnel vision, but it seems that everyone in Ukraine doesn't see the forest for the trees. The point at which Yanukovich was doomed did not come in February or even in January. It came when he accepted money from Putin in mid-December and it mattered very little which course the events took.
Similarly, events taking place now will have wide-reaching repercussions. Ukraine's #1 problem now is EU rather than Russia. EU has only went along with US geopolitical interests because it gave them a huge market for exports. It never had intention to have Ukraine as a full member. Right now, with US support, Ukrainian government holds all the cards in international negotiations.
Right now, there's a very interesting role transference. Ukrainian Govt to EU Govt now is as Ukrainian Opp to Ukrainian Govt then. There are attempts at weak, counter-productive agreements and complete misunderstanding of own power or listening to peoples wishes. Ukraine should NOT accept EU money on conditions it finds unacceptable and those conditions will be removed. Similarly, it should NOT sign EU association without a full membership guarantee and such guarantee will be provided.
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timeasmymeasure
Casus belli
Date: 2014-02-27 06:55 am (UTC)There were plenty of stupid actions within Ukrainian parliament. However, they are minor and could not have caused the events you describe. Russia is fully capable of creating its own provocations, but for reasons unknown is refraining from them. As mentioned, there's likely a red line drawn involving mass-casualty events originated by Russia (and they are not good at improvising other excuses).
Same thing with Right Sector. It's an organization that grew exponentially during the past month. It simply cannot control all its members. Much less prevent people from claiming they are RS. While providing fodder for informational war is stupid, specific mistakes really don't matter.
If Russia needs a pretext, it will create one. By getting involved in Crimea militarily Russia is bringing its own collapse to within 2-3 years. If it crosses into mainland Ukraine, the countdown will change to months.
---
It's an interesting theory that Putin gave priority to the moderates, however the events on the ground do no bear it out. In fact, everything is pointing to a military operation in Crimea. However, rather than dramatic images of Russian tanks being off-loaded, the operation will be ramping up very slowly. Putin will hope to avoid harsh sanctions by not making very sudden moves. He will hope that more open presence of Russian soldiers will create tension and casualties necessary for him to excuse constantly increasing involvement.
---
As to the theory that US wants archive from Yanuk and is offering/offered him safe passage - it's a silly rumor. In such situation US usually does 2 things: 1) Bribe the lowest possible cadre who is capable of securing required documents 2) Deploy a spec ops team to secure them (who will work with local allies). US would not get its hand dirty in the way you describe. In this case however, there is very little information that US does not already have. Some information on weapon deals in ME would be nice, but we have most of it from the other side anyway.
---
Tymoshenko has had her chance at running the country is significantly responsible for today's mess. Her personal ambition and incompatibility with other players makes her influence destructive in the current situation. Her international weight has been significantly undermined by this WH announcement:
"We welcome former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenkoâs release from a prison hospital today, and we wish her a speedy recovery as she seeks the appropriate medical treatment that she has long needed and sought"
---
It's understandable that events dictate a degree of tunnel vision, but it seems that everyone in Ukraine doesn't see the forest for the trees. The point at which Yanukovich was doomed did not come in February or even in January. It came when he accepted money from Putin in mid-December and it mattered very little which course the events took.
Similarly, events taking place now will have wide-reaching repercussions. Ukraine's #1 problem now is EU rather than Russia. EU has only went along with US geopolitical interests because it gave them a huge market for exports. It never had intention to have Ukraine as a full member. Right now, with US support, Ukrainian government holds all the cards in international negotiations.
Right now, there's a very interesting role transference. Ukrainian Govt to EU Govt now is as Ukrainian Opp to Ukrainian Govt then. There are attempts at weak, counter-productive agreements and complete misunderstanding of own power or listening to peoples wishes. Ukraine should NOT accept EU money on conditions it finds unacceptable and those conditions will be removed. Similarly, it should NOT sign EU association without a full membership guarantee and such guarantee will be provided.